Volume 10, Number 7—July 2004
Research
Alert Threshold Algorithms and Malaria Epidemic Detection
Table 2
Potentially preventable cases (PPC) by level of the seasonal percentile threshold in relation to number of alerts per year (8-week window)
District | Six alert threshold levels based on seasonal percentile | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
95th percentile | 90th percentile | 85th percentile | 80th percentile | 75th percentile | 70th percentile | |||||||
No. alerts | % PPC | No. alerts | % PPC | No. alerts | % PPC | No. alerts | % PPC | No. alerts | % PPC | No. alerts | % PPC | |
Alaba | 0.44 | 18.6 | 0.53 | 20.1 | 0.62 | 24.5 | 0.62 | 23.4 | 0.8 | 28.8 | 0.97 | 30.1 |
Awasa | 0.55 | 28.1 | 0.65 | 28.1 | 0.65 | 35.6 | 0.91 | 32.9 | 0.91 | 32.9 | 1.0 | 20.2 |
Bahirdar | 0.55 | 27.9 | 0.55 | 27.9 | 0.55 | 27.9 | 0.82 | 37.6 | 0.82 | 38.4 | 0.82 | 38.4 |
Debrezeit | 0.27 | 19.8 | 0.54 | 28.5 | 0.54 | 37 | 0.54 | 36.2 | 0.54 | 36.2 | 0.8 | 39 |
Diredawa | 0.61 | 25.2 | 0.61 | 26.6 | 0.82 | 26.9 | 0.82 | 26.9 | 1.1 | 31 | 1.1 | 31.1 |
Hosana | 0.35 | 25.6 | 0.62 | 32.6 | 0.71 | 33.5 | 0.8 | 34.3 | 0.97 | 28 | 0.97 | 28 |
Jimma | 0.39 | 24.9 | 0.39 | 24.9 | 0.78 | 31.8 | 0.87 | 33.1 | 0.97 | 32.1 | 0.87 | 31.9 |
Nazareth | 0.54 | 33.9 | 0.54 | 33.9 | 0.86 | 34 | 0.86 | 34 | 1.1 | 18.7 | 1.2 | 19.7 |
Wolayita | 0.54 | 24.8 | 0.54 | 24.8 | 0.86 | 30.5 | 0.86 | 30.5 | 0.97 | 29.9 | 1.1 | 29.9 |
Zeway | 0.36 | 30.2 | 0.36 | 30.2 | 0.84 | 37.2 | 0.84 | 37.2 | 0.84 | 36.4 | 0.84 | 28.5 |
Total | 0.46 | 25.9 | 0.53 | 27.8 | 0.72 | 31.9 | 0.79 | 32.6 | 0.9 | 31.2 | 0.97 | 29.7 |