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Volume 12, Number 1—January 2006
Research

Real-time Forecast of Multiphase Outbreak

Ying-Hen Hsieh*Comments to Author  and Yuan-Sen Cheng*
Author affiliations: *National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan

Main Article

Table 3

Estimates of parameters for Richards model using cumulative case data of selected time periods in phase 2 of 2003 Toronto area SARS outbreak starting from April 28 with 95% confidence interval for the maximum case number K*

End date Growth rate Exponent of deviation Turning point Maximum case no.
May 25 0.557 3.866 24.59 223.37 (199.67–247.07)
May 27 0.350 2.393 25.84 244.36 (220.53–268.18)
May 29 0.236 1.554 27.36 271.28 (240.94–301.62)
May 31 0.321 2.202 26.43 252.53 (244.32–260.74)
Jun 2 0.352 2.448 26.36 249.51 (245.70–253.33)
Jun 4 0.359 2.508 26.36 248.96 (246.67–251.25)
Jun 6 0.367 2.576 26.37 248.52 (246.98–250.07)

*SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome.

Main Article

Page created: February 16, 2012
Page updated: February 16, 2012
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