Volume 13, Number 5—May 2007
Research
Trends for Influenza-related Deaths during Pandemic and Epidemic Seasons, Italy, 1969–2001
Table 3
Multinational comparison of influenza A (H3N2) Hong Kong pandemic, based on all-cause excess deaths estimates*
Deaths | Italy† | England, Wales† | France† | Australia‡ | Japan† | USA§ | Canada§ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Overall no./100,000 population | 107 | 77 | 72 | 64 | 49 | 27 | 12 |
Increases over baseline, % | 24 | 20 | 21 | 16 | 20 | 8 | 6 |
Persons <65 y, | 29 | 23 | 27 | 20 | N/A | 34 | 24 |
*Data from this study and (8). Estimates are for the major pandemic seasons, for which timing varied by country. N/A, not applicable.
†Second season of virus circulation, 1969–70.
‡Second season of virus circulation, 1970.
§First season of virus circulation, 1968–69.
References
- Bonabeau E, Toubiana L, Flahault A. The geographical spread of influenza.Proc Biol Sci.1998;265:2421–5. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Mugglin AS, Cressie N, Gemmell I. Hierarchical statistical modelling of influenza epidemic dynamics in space and time.Stat Med. 2002;21:2703–21. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Viboud C, Boelle PY, Pakdaman K, Carrat F, Valleron AJ, Flahault A. Influenza epidemics in the United States, France, and Australia, 1972–1997.Emerg Infect Dis. 2004;10:32–9.PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Sakai T, Suzuki H, Sasaki A, Saito R, Tanabe N, Taniguchi K. Geographic and temporal trends in influenzalike illness, Japan, 1992–1999.Emerg Infect Dis. 2004;10:1822–6.PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Viboud C, Bjornstad ON, Smith DL, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Grenfell BT. Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza.Science. 2006;312:447–51. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Greene SK, Ionides EL, Wilson ML. Patterns of influenza-associated mortality among US elderly by geographic region and virus subtype, 1968–1998.Am J Epidemiol. 2006;163:316–26. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Serfling RE, Sherman IL, Houseworth WJ. Excess pneumonia-influenza mortality by age and sex in three major influenza A2 epidemics, United States, 1957–58, 1960 and 1963.Am J Epidemiol. 1967;86:433–41.PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Viboud C, Grais RF, Lafont BA, Miller MA, Simonsen L. Multinational impact of the 1968 Hong Kong influenza pandemic: evidence for a smoldering pandemic.J Infect Dis. 2005;192:233–48. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Simonsen L, Reichert TA, Viboud C, Blackwelder WC, Taylor RJ, Miller MA. Impact of influenza vaccination on seasonal mortality in the US elderly population.Arch Intern Med. 2005;165:265–72. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Reichert TA, Simonsen L, Sharma A, Pardo SA, Fedson DS, Miller MA. Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959–1999.Am J Epidemiol. 2004;160:492–502. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Dushoff J, Plotkin JB, Viboud C, Earn DJ, Simonsen L. Mortality due to influenza in the United States—an annualized regression approach using multiple-cause mortality data.Am J Epidemiol. 2006;163:181–7. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Simonsen L, Clarke MJ, Schonberger LB, Arden NH, Cox NJ, Fukuda K. Pandemic versus epidemic influenza mortality: a pattern of changing age distribution.J Infect Dis. 1998;178:53–60.PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Stroup DF, Thacker SB, Herndon JL. Application of multiple time series analysis to the estimation of pneumonia and influenza mortality by age 1962–1983.Stat Med. 1988;7:1045–59. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Lui KJ, Kendal AP. Impact of influenza epidemics on mortality in the United States from October 1972 to May 1985.Am J Public Health. 1987;77:712–6. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Simonsen L, Clarke MJ, Williamson GD, Stroup DF, Arden NH, Schonberger LB. The impact of influenza epidemics on mortality: introducing a severity index.Am J Public Health. 1997;87:1944–50. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Fleming DM. The contribution of influenza to combined acute respiratory infections, hospital admissions, and deaths in winter.Commun Dis Public Health. 2000;3:32–8.PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Zucs P, Buchholz U, Haas W, Uphoff H. Influenza associated excess mortality in Germany, 1985–2001.Emerg Themes Epidemiol. 2005;2:6. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Kyncl J, Prochazka B, Goddard NL, Havlickova M, Castkova J, Otavova M, A study of excess mortality during influenza epidemics in the Czech Republic, 1982–2000.Eur J Epidemiol. 2005;20:365–71. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Rizzo C, Viboud C, Montomoli E, Simonsen L, Miller MA. Influenza-related mortality in the Italian elderly: no decline associated with increasing vaccination coverage.Vaccine. 2006;24:6468–75. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Istituto Nazionale di Statistica. Cause di morte, anno 2000. Annuario 16. 2004.
- World Health Organization. Weekly epidemiological record. Archives 1926–1995 [cited 2007 Mar 8]. Available from http://www.who.int/wer/archives/en/
- Mancini G, Arangio-Ruiz G, Campitelli L, Castrucci MR, Diana L, Donatelli I, et al. Surveillance of influenza A and B viruses in Italy between 1984 and 1987.Eur J Epidemiol. 1988;4:445–50. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Mancini G, Arangio-Ruiz G, Donatelli I, Rozera C, Butto S. Diffusion of influenza viruses in Italy in years 1982-83-84. Laboratory investigations at the National Influenza Centre of WHO.Ann Ist Super Sanita. 1986;22:717–21.PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Langmuir AD, Housworth J. A critical evaluation of influenza surveillance.Bull World Health Organ. 1969;41:393–8.PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Rocchi G, Ragona G, de Felici A, Muzzi A. Epidemiological evaluation of influenza in Italy.Bull World Health Organ. 1974;50:401–6.PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Rocchi G, Muzzi A, Giannini V. Sero-epidemiological studies of the adult population at the time of an epidemic caused by A2 influenza virus (Hong Kong variant) which occurred in Rome in the winter of 1969–1970[in Italian]. Nuovi Ann Ig Microbiol. 1970;21:150–60.PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Colonnello F. The epidemic of A2 Hong-Kong 68 virus influenza in Italy[in Italian]. G Mal Infett Parassit. 1969;21:893–5.PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Simonsen L, Reichert TA, Miller MA. The virtues of antigenic sin: consequences of pandemic recycling on influenza-associated mortality. New York: Elsevier Science B.B. International Congress Series; 2004 p. 791–4.
- Bella A, De Mei B, Giannitelli S, Rota MC, Salmaso S, Donatelli I, FLU- Istituto Superiore di Sanità: a sentinel surveillance network for influenza relying on general practitioners and pediatricians. Report for 2004–2005 [in Italian]. The Institute; 2005. Report no. 22.
- Kendall BE, Bjornstad ON, Bascompte J, Keitt TH, Fagan WF. Dispersal, environmental correlation, and spatial synchrony in population dynamics.Am Nat. 2000;155:628–36. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Bjornstad ON, Ims RA, Lambin X. Spatial population dynamics: analyzing patterns and processes of population synchrony.Trends Ecol Evol. 1999;14:427–32. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Brownstein JS, Wolfe CJ, Mandl KD. Empirical evidence for the effect of airline travel on inter-regional influenza spread in the United States.PLoS Med. 2006;3:e401. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Cox NJ, Subbarao K. Global epidemiology of influenza: past and present.Annu Rev Med. 2000;51:407–21. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Saito R, Paget J, Hitaka S, Sakai T, Sasaki A, van der Velde K, et al. Geographic mapping method shows potential for mapping influenza activity in Europe.Euro Surveill. 2005;10:E051027.PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Ministry of Health. National plan for preparedness and response to an influenza pandemic [cited 2007 Mar 8]. 2006. Available from http://www.ministerosalute.it/imgs/C_17_pubblicazioni_511_allegato.pdf
- Ciofi degli Atti ML. Rizzo C, Pompa MG, Salmaso S, Greco D. How prepared is Europe for pandemic influenza?Lancet. 2006;368:25.