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Volume 14, Number 2—February 2008

Cost-effectiveness of Antiviral Stockpiling and Near-Patient Testing for Potential Influenza Pandemic

M. Ruby Siddiqui*Comments to Author  and W. John Edmunds*
Author affiliations: *Health Protection Agency, London, UK;

Main Article


Total NHS costs and QALY loss (discounted at 3.5%) resulting from an influenza pandemic occurring in 30 years assuming 1918 or 1957/69 CFR*

Treatment program Pandemic influenza cases (millions) Pandemic influenza deaths (millions) Discounted NHS costs (million £) Discounted QALY loss (millions) Incremental cost per QALY (£)
1918 scenario
No intervention 15 0.344 113 2.23
Treat only 15 0.236 1,361 1.56 1,861†
Test-treat 15 0.231 2,356 1.53 31,031‡
1957–69 scenario
No intervention 15 0.044 113 0.395
Treat only 15 0.030 1,361 0.303 13,668†
Test-treat 15 0.030 2,356 0.299 227,896‡

*NHS, National Health Service; QALY, quality-adjusted life years; CFR, case-fatality ratio.
†Cost per QALY gained over no intervention program.
‡Cost per QALY gained over treat-only program.

Main Article

Page created: July 08, 2010
Page updated: July 08, 2010
Page reviewed: July 08, 2010
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.