Volume 15, Number 10—October 2009
A Model-based Assessment of Oseltamivir Prophylaxis Strategies to Prevent Influenza in Nursing Homes
|Time step (= shift), h||8||(18)|
|Minimum duration of simulation, d||80|
|Discharge/mortality rate, per d||1/425||(16,17)|
|Rate of becoming infectious after infection, per d||1/1/4||(20,21)|
|Infection recovery rate, per d||1/1/4||(20,21)|
|Prior immunity HCWs||0.3||(22)|
|Prior immunity patients||0|
|Vaccine uptake patients||75%||(25)|
|Vaccine uptake HCWs||40%||(2)|
|Vaccine efficacy (against infection)|
|Transmission probability per casual contact||0.13||(18)|
|Close/casual transmission probability ratio||2|
|Mean visitor frequency/patient/d||0.7||(31)|
|Minimum duration of postexposure prophylaxis, d||14||(2)|
|Minimum duration of postexposure prophylaxis after last detected case, d
|Parameters in uncertainty analyses|
|Probability of disease developing after infection (range)||0.5 (0.30–0.7)||(4)|
|Probability of disease developing after infection, during prophylaxis (range)||0.2 (0.05–0.4)||(4)|
|Oseltamivir efficacy against infection (range)||0.53 (0.2–0.8)||(4)|
|Oseltamivir reduction in infectiousness (range)||0.2 (0–0.5)||(4)|
*HCW, healthcare worker.
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