Skip directly to site content Skip directly to page options Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link
Volume 18, Number 1—January 2012
Research

The 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic in Boyacá, Colombia

Gerardo ChowellComments to Author , Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Mark A. Miller, Rodolfo Acuna-Soto, Juan M. Ospina Díaz, and Abel Fernando Martínez-Martín
Author affiliations: Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA (G. Chowell); National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA (G. Chowell, C. Viboud, M.A. Miller); George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA (L. Simonsen); Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Delegación Coyoacán, Mexico (R. Acuna-Soto); Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Boyacá, Colombia (J.M. Ospina Díaz, A.F. Martínez-Martín)

Main Article

Table 3

Estimates of the growth rate and reproduction number associated with the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Boyacá, Colombia*

Mortality outcome Early growth phase period, 1918 Daily growth rate, mean (95% CI) R estimate, mean (95% CI)
3-d generation interval
4-d generation interval
Exp dist. Delta dist. Exp dist. Delta dist.
Deaths from respiratory illness Oct 13–Nov 15 0.121
(0.120–0.122) 1.40
(1.39–1.40) 1.44
(1.43–1.44) 1.54
(1.54–1.54) 1.62
(1.62–1.63)
Excess deaths from respiratory illness Oct 27–Nov 15 0.137
(0.136–0.139) 1.45
(1.45–1.46) 1.51
(1.51–1.52) 1.62
(1.62–1.63) 1.73
(1.72–1.74)

*Estimates are based on daily data. A generation interval of 3 or 4 d is assumed, with an exponential (exp) or a fixed (delta) distribution (dist.). R, reproduction number.

Main Article

Page created: December 16, 2011
Page updated: December 16, 2011
Page reviewed: December 16, 2011
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
file_external