Volume 19, Number 11—November 2013
Research
Capture–Recapture Method for Estimating Annual Incidence of Imported Dengue, France, 2007–2010
Table 3
Annual number of dengue cases estimated from MN and LN surveillance systems by using Chapman-Seber estimator, stratified according to geographic area and period of the year, metropolitan France, 2007–2010*
No. observed cases |
Chapman-Seber estimator |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year, region, period | System |
Common cases | Estimated no. cases (95% CI) | Completeness of MN, % (95% CI) | Completeness of LN, % (95% CI) | ||
MN | LN | ||||||
2007 | |||||||
Southeast, May–Nov | 4 | 21 | 4 | 21† | 19.0† | 100† | |
Other areas, remainder of year | 52 | 365 | 21 | 881 (678–1,228) | 5.9 (4.2–7.7) | 41.4 (29.7–53.8) | |
Total |
56 |
386 |
25 |
902 (699–1,249) |
6.2 (4.5–8.0) |
42.8 (30.9.7–55.2) |
|
2008 | |||||||
Southeast, May–Nov | 6 | 11 | 4 | 16 (14–27) | 38.0 (22.0–44.4) | 69.6 (40.3–81.2) | |
Other areas, remainder of year | 58 | 293 | 42 | 402 (360–479) | 14.4 (12.1–16.1) | 72.8 (61.2–81.3) | |
Total |
64 |
304 |
46 |
418 (376–495) |
15.3 (12.9–17.0) |
72.7 (61.2–80.7) |
|
2009 | |||||||
Southeast, May–Nov | 5 | 19 | 4 | 23 (20–38) | 21.7 (13.1–24.4) | 82.6 (52.3–97.6) | |
Other areas, remainder of year | 63 | 331 | 38 | 544 (468–671) | 11.6 (9.4–13.5) | 60.9 (49.3–70.1) | |
Total |
68 |
350 |
42 |
567 (490–694) |
12.0 (9.8–13.8) |
61.7 (50.3–71.2) |
|
2010 | |||||||
Southeast, May–Nov | 91 | 174 | 75 | 211 (200–232) | 43.2 (39.3–45.4) | 82.5 (75.2–86.8) | |
Other areas, remainder of year | 494 | 1,951 | 354 | 2,721 (2,599–2,872) | 18.2 (17.2–19.0) | 71.7 (67.9–75.1) | |
Total |
585 |
2,125 |
429 |
2,932 (2,809–3,083) |
20.0 (19.0–20.8) |
72.5 (68.9–75.6) |
|
2007–2010 | |||||||
Southeast, May–Nov | 106 | 225 | 87 | 271 (258–294) | 39.2 (35.4–40.8) | 83.1 (75.1–86.7) | |
Other areas, remainder of year | 667 | 2,940 | 455 | 4,548 (4,262–4,907) | 14.7 (13.5–15.5) | 64.6 (59.3–68.5) | |
Total |
773 |
3,165 |
542 |
4,818 (4,532–5,178) |
16.0 (14.8–16.9) |
65.7 (60.5–69.3) |
|
*Information on geographic area or period of the year was not available for 27 cases; MN, mandatory notification; LN, laboratory network. †95% CI not presented because of null variances. |