Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015
Estimates of Outbreak Risk from New Introductions of Ebola with Immediate and Delayed Transmission Control
|Patient group||No.||Transmissions||R estimate (90% CI)||k estimate (90% CI)|
|All||56||29||0.5 (0.2–1.0)||0.09 (0.03–0.2)|
|Traveler||7||19||2.9 (0.6–6.1)||0.4 (0.2–1.3)|
|Evacuated patient||20||1||0.05 (0–0.1)||∞|
|Patient with locally acquired Ebola||29||9||0.3 (0.1–0.5)||0.5 (0.2–∞)|
*Cases were included if the patient spent any of the infectious period in a country other than Guinea, Liberia, or Sierra Leone. The 56 patients are split into 3 mutually exclusive subgroups, depending on the patients’ circumstances. Parameters R and k of the negative binomial distribution are the reproductive number and dispersion parameter, respectively. Goodness of fit was not rejected by a Kolmogorov–Smirnov test (p>0.6 in all cases).