Volume 22, Number 1—January 2016
Research
Human Papillomavirus Prevalence and Herd Immunity after Introduction of Vaccination Program, Scotland, 2009–2013
Ross L. Cameron
, Kimberley Kavanagh, Jiafeng Pan, John Love, Kate Cuschieri, Chris Robertson, Syed Ahmed, Timothy Palmer, and Kevin G.J. Pollock
, Kimberley Kavanagh, Jiafeng Pan, John Love, Kate Cuschieri, Chris Robertson, Syed Ahmed, Timothy Palmer, and Kevin G.J. Pollock
Table 2
Prevalence and unadjusted odds of positivity for HPV types 16 or 18 and cross-protective types stratified by year of sample collection, number of doses received, birth year, and age at vaccination, Scotland, 2009–2013 (N = 5,765)*
| Variable |
No. |
HPV 16 or 18 |
Cross-protective HPV types† |
|||||
| No. pos |
% Pos (95% CI) |
Unadjusted OR (95% CI) |
No. pos |
% Pos (95% CI) |
Unadjusted OR (95% CI) |
|||
| Collection year | ||||||||
| 2009 | 1,652 | 476 | 28.8 (26.7–31.0) | 1 (reference) | 215 | 13.0 (11.5–14.7) | 1 (reference) | |
| 2010 | 1,053 | 333 | 31.6 (28.9–34.5) | 1.14 (0.97–1.35) | 143 | 13.6 (11.6–15.8) | 1.05 (0.84–1.32) | |
| 2011 | 1,001 | 233 | 23.3 (20.7–26.0) | 0.75 (0.63–0.90) | 104 | 10.4 (8.7–12.4) | 0.78 (0.60–0.99) | |
| 2012 | 993 | 169 | 17.0 (14.8–19.5) | 0.51 (0.42–0.62) | 83 | 8.4 (6.8–10.2) | 0.61 (0.47–0.79) | |
| 2013 |
1,016 |
103 |
10.1 (8.40–12.2) |
0.28 (0.22–0.35) |
64 |
6.3 (5.0–8.0) |
0.45 (0.33–0.60) |
|
| No. doses vaccine received | ||||||||
| 0 | 3,619 | 1062 | 29.4 (27.9–30.9) | 1 (reference) | 468 | 12.9 (11.9–14.1) | 1 (reference) | |
| 1 | 89 | 20 | 22.5 (15.0–32.2) | 0.70 (0.41–1.13) | 15 | 16.9 (10.5–26.0) | 1.37 (0.75–2.33) | |
| 2 | 154 | 28 | 18.2 (12.9–25.0) | 0.54 (0.35–0.80) | 11 | 7.1 (4.0–12.3) | 0.52 (0.26–0.92) | |
| 3 |
1,853 |
204 |
11.0 (9.70–12.5) |
0.30 (0.25–0.35) |
115 |
6.2 (5.2–7.4) |
0.45 (0.36–0.55) |
|
| Birth year | ||||||||
| 1988 | 844 | 251 | 29.7 (26.8–32.9) | 1 (reference) | 119 | 14.1 (11.9–16.6) | 1 (reference) | |
| 1989 | 1,196 | 343 | 28.7 (26.2–31.3) | 0.96 (0.79–1.17) | 140 | 11.7 (10–13.7) | 0.82 (0.63–1.06) | |
| 1990 | 1,204 | 349 | 29.0 (26.5–31.6) | 0.97 (0.80–1.18) | 155 | 12.9 (11.1–14.9) | 0.91 (0.70–1.17) | |
| 1991 | 867 | 175 | 20.2 (17.6–23.0) | 0.60 (0.48–0.74) | 80 | 9.2 (7.5–11.3) | 0.62 (0.46–0.83) | |
| 1992 | 1,261 | 169 | 13.4 (11.6–15.4) | 0.36 (0.29–0.45) | 90 | 7.1 (5.8–8.7) | 0.47 (0.35–0.62) | |
| 1993 |
393 |
27 |
6.90 (4.8–9.8) |
0.17 (0.11–0.26) |
25 |
6.4 (4.3–9.2) |
0.41 (0.26–0.63) |
|
| Age at vaccination, y‡ | ||||||||
| 15–16 | 970 | 75 | 7.7 (6.2–9.6) | 1 (reference) | 52 | 5.4 (4.1–7.0) | 1 (reference) | |
| 17 | 631 | 79 | 12.5 (10.2–15.3) | 1.70 (1.22–2.38) | 47 | 7.4 (5.6–9.8) | 1.42 (0.94–2.13) | |
| 18 | 391 | 65 | 16.6 (13.3–20.6) | 2.38 (1.67–3.40) | 30 | 7.7 (5.4–10.7) | 1.47 (0.91–2.32) | |
| >18 | 109 | 33 | 30.3 (22.4–39.5) | 5.31 (3.28–8.48) | 12 | 11 (6.4–18.3) | 2.23 (1.1–4.18) | |
*HPV, human papillomavirus; OR, odds ratio; pos, positive.
†HPV types 31, 33, or 45.
‡For those vaccinated.
Page created: December 18, 2015
Page updated: December 18, 2015
Page reviewed: December 18, 2015
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.