Volume 22, Number 3—March 2016
Research
Faster Detection of Poliomyelitis Outbreaks to Support Polio Eradication
Isobel M. Blake
, Paul Chenoweth, Hiro Okayasu, Christl A. Donnelly, R. Bruce Aylward, and Nicholas C. Grassly
, Paul Chenoweth, Hiro Okayasu, Christl A. Donnelly, R. Bruce Aylward, and Nicholas C. Grassly
Table
Performance of cluster detection of acute flaccid paralysis cases as an early-warning system for detection of polio outbreaks, 2003–2013*
| Country | No. confirmed polio outbreaks | % Identified outbreaks | Specificity, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Somalia | 5 | 60 | 97 |
| Tajikistan | 1 | 100 | 99 |
| Congo | 1 | 100 | 96 |
| Chad | 8 | 62 | 89 |
| CAR | 4 | 50 | 91 |
| DRC | 5 | 80 | 63 |
| Gabon | 0 | NA | 100 |
| Kenya | 4 | 75 | 91 |
| Mali | 4 | 50 | 95 |
| Niger | 6 | 67 | 87 |
| South Sudan | 3 | 67 | 96 |
| Madagascar | 0 | NA | 92 |
| Côte D’Ivoire | 3 | 100 | 81 |
| Ethiopia | 5 | 40 | 93 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 0 | NA | 100 |
| Cameroon | 5 | 20 | 93 |
| Benin | 2 | 100 | 94 |
| Angola | 4 | 100 | 96 |
| Ghana | 1 | 100 | 92 |
| Burkina Faso | 2 | 0 | 88 |
*Outbreak is defined as >2 reported cases of wild poliovirus type 1 or 3 or circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus poliomyelitis <6 mo apart in the given country. CAR, Central African Republic; DRC, Democratic Republic of the Congo; NA, not applicable.
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