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Volume 23, Number 10—October 2017
Dispatch

Epidemiology of Reemerging Scarlet Fever, Hong Kong, 2005–2015

Chun Fan Lee, Benjamin J. CowlingComments to Author , and Eric H. Y. Lau
Author affiliations: World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

Main Article

Table

Estimated incidence rate ratios of various epidemiologic and meteorological factors affecting reemergence of scarlet fever, Hong Kong, 2005–2015*

Preupsurge period, 2005–2010, 311 wks
Postupsurge period, 2012–2015, 209 wks
Linear time trend, per year
0.98 (0.95–1.02)
0.92 (0.89–0.94)
Sex
F 1.00 1.00
M
1.33 (0.92–1.94)

1.08 (0.87–1.34)
Age group, y
0–2 1.00 1.00
3–5 2.78 (2.02–3.90) 3.17 (2.63–3.84)
6–11 1.29 (0.95–1.80) 2.06 (1.71–2.50)
12–14
0.13 (0.07–0.24)

0.14 (0.09–0.21)
Sex × age interaction
Boys, 0–2 y 1.00 1.00
Boys, 3–5 y 1.11 (0.72–1.68) 1.36 (1.07–1.74)
Boys, 6–11 y 1.07 (0.70–1.61) 1.22 (0.96–1.55)
Boys, 12–14 y
1.01 (0.44–2.36)

1.86 (1.12–3.15)
School holidays in the preceding week
0.68 (0.55–0.85)

0.58 (0.51–0.65)
Temperature, °C
0.991 (0.953–1.031)

0.963 (0.940–0.987)
Relative humidity, %
0.981 (0.972–0.990)

0.997 (0.992–1.002)
Rainfall, mm 1.009 (1.002–1.016) 0.998 (0.993–1.002)

*Incidence rate ratios estimated by negative binomial regression models also accounting for autocorrelation and annual and biannual seasonality using Fourier terms with periods of 1 year (T) and half a year (T/2), where T = 365.25/7 weeks. IRR, incidence rate ratio.

Main Article

Page created: September 18, 2017
Page updated: September 18, 2017
Page reviewed: September 18, 2017
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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