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Volume 23, Number 11—November 2017
Research

Symptom- and Laboratory-Based Ebola Risk Scores to Differentiate Likely Ebola Infections

Shefali OzaComments to Author , Alieu A. Sesay, Neal J. Russell, Kevin Wing, Sabah Boufkhed, Lahai Vandi, Sahr C. Sebba, Rachael Cummings, and Francesco Checchi
Author affiliations: Save the Children International, Kerry Town, Sierra Leone (S. Oza, A.A. Sesay, N.J. Russell, K. Wing, S. Boufkhed, L. Vandi, S.C. Sebba, R. Cummings, F. Checchi); London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom (S. Oza, N.J. Russell, K. Wing, S. Boufkhed, F. Checchi); Save the Children International, London (R. Cummings, F. Checchi)

Main Article

Table 4

Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of ESR and ESLR scores to determine risk for infection in suspected Ebola patients*

Score % EVD negative % EVD positive Sensitivity† (95% CI) Specificity† (95% CI) PPV† (95% CI) NPV† (95% CI)
ESR score, range −3 to +5
−3 8 0 100 (100–100) 0 (0–0) 59 (55–64) NA
−2 16 4 100 (100–100) 8 (4–12) 61 (57–66) 100 (100–100)
−1 19 10 96 (94–98) 24 (18–31) 65 (60–70) 81 (70–91)
0 33 14 86 (81–90) 43 (36–50) 69 (64–74) 67 (59–76)
1 13 19 72 (66–77) 76 (70–83) 82 (76–87) 65 (58–71)
2 6 24 53 (47–59) 89 (84–94) 88 (82–93) 56 (50–62)
3 5 21 29 (23–35) 95 (92–98) 90 (84–97) 48 (43–53)
4 0 7 8 (5–11) 100 (100–100) 100 (100–100) 43 (38–47)
5
0
1
1 (0–3)
100 (100–100)
100 (100–100)
41 (36–46)
ESLR score, range −4 to +9
−4 1 0 100 (100–100) 0 (0–0) 56 (50–62) NA
−3 10 1 100 (100–100) 1 (0–2) 56 (51–62) 100 (100–100)
−2 16 1 99 (98–100) 10 (5–15) 59 (53–64) 93 (81–100)
−1 19 3 99 (97–100) 26 (19–34) 63 (57–69) 95 (88–100)
0 25 3 95 (92–99) 46 (37–54) 69 (63–75) 89 (81–96)
1 11 8 92 (88–96) 71 (63–78) 80 (74–85) 87 (81–94)
2 7 14 84 (79–90) 82 (75–88) 85 (80–91) 80 (74–87)
3 9 14 70 (63–77) 89 (84–94) 89 (84–94) 70 (63–77)
4 1 20 55 (48–63) 98 (95–100) 97 (94–100) 63 (57–70)
5 1 17 36 (29–43) 99 (97–100) 97 (93–100) 55 (48–61)
6 0 10 18 (13–24) 100 (100–100) 100 (100–100) 49 (43–55)
7 0 7 9 (4–13) 100 (100–100) 100 (100–100) 46 (41–52)
8 0 1 2 (0–4) 100 (100–100) 100 (100–100) 44 (39–50)
9 0 1 1 (0–3) 100 (100–100) 100 (100–100) 44 (39–50)

*ESLR, Ebola symptom- and laboratory-based risk; ESR, Ebola symptom-based risk; EVD,  Ebola virus disease; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV,  positive predictive value.
†Based on greater or equal to the score (e.g., sensitivity for a score of 0 means that those with a score of 0 or higher were considered to be EVD positive).

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Page created: October 16, 2017
Page updated: October 16, 2017
Page reviewed: October 16, 2017
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