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Volume 25, Number 12—December 2019
Dispatch

Predicting Dengue Outbreaks in Cambodia

Anthony Cousien, Julia Ledien, Kimsan Souv, Rithea Leang, Rekol Huy, Didier Fontenille, Sowath Ly, Veasna Duong, Philippe Dussart, Patrice Piola1Comments to Author , Simon Cauchemez1, and Arnaud Tarantola1
Author affiliations: Institut Pasteur du Cambodge, Phnom Penh, Cambodia (A. Cousien, J. Ledien, K. Souv, D. Fontenille, S. Ly, V. Duong, P. Dussart, P. Piola); Institut Pasteur, Paris, France (A. Cousien, S. Cauchemez); CNRS, Paris (A. Cousien, S. Cauchemez); National Center for Entomology, Parasitology and Malaria Control, Phnom Penh (R. Leang, R. Huy); Institut Pasteur, Noumea, New Caledonia (A. Tarantola)

Main Article

Figure 2

Dengue cases in Cambodia, 2004–2016. A) Observed versus predicted magnitude of the peak for each dengue season. We used a simple linear regression model, M = α + βN, in which M indicates the magnitude of the peak and N the number of reported dengue-like cases in April. The black line represents the expected results with perfect prediction. B) Results for the leave-one-out cross-validation procedure.

Figure 2. Dengue cases in Cambodia, 2004–2016. A) Observed versus predicted magnitude of the peak for each dengue season. We used a simple linear regression model, M = α + βN, in which M indicates the magnitude of the peak and N the number of reported dengue-like cases in April. The black line represents the expected results with perfect prediction. B) Results for the leave-one-out cross-validation procedure.

Main Article

1These senior authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: November 18, 2019
Page updated: November 18, 2019
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