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Volume 25, Number 9—September 2019

Rodent Host Abundance and Climate Variability as Predictors of Tickborne Disease Risk 1 Year in Advance

Emil TkadlecComments to Author , Tomáš Václavík, and Pavel Široký
Author affiliations: Palacký University Olomouc, Olomouc, Czech Republic (E. Tkadlec, T. Václavík); Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Brno, Czech Republic (E. Tkadlec); UFZ–Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany (T. Václavík); University of Veterinary and Pharmaceutical Sciences Brno, Brno (P. Široký); Central European Institute of Technology, Brno (P. Široký)

Main Article

Table 1

Differences in AIC from the best model for Lyme disease incidences as modeled by AR linear models of order 0–2 with vole and abundance annual NAO index as external predictors, 3 countries in central Europe, 2000–2017*

Country and model structure Order of AR model
0 1 2
Czech Republic
Pure AR model 4.1 3.2 5.0
Volest–1 2.9 2.6 4.9
NAO annual indext–1 2.8 3.2 3.7
Volest–1 + NAO annual indext–1
Pure AR model 0.0 3.2 4.6
Volest–1 0.0 2.1 5.6
NAO annual indext–1 3.3 7.2 6.5
Volest–1 + NAO annual indext–1
Pure AR model 0.4 0.0 1.6
Volest–1 3.1 3.5 4.8
NAO annual indext–2 0.3 0.1 2.3
Volest–1 + NAO annual indext–2 3.9 4.5 6.5

AIC, Akaike information criterion; AR, autoregressive; NAO, North Atlantic oscillation.

Main Article

Page created: August 21, 2019
Page updated: August 21, 2019
Page reviewed: August 21, 2019
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