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Volume 26, Number 10—October 2020

Impact of Social Distancing Measures on Coronavirus Disease Healthcare Demand, Central Texas, USA

Xutong Wang1, Remy F. Pasco1, Zhanwei Du1, Michaela Petty, Spencer J. Fox, Alison P. Galvani, Michael Pignone, S. Claiborne Johnston, and Lauren Ancel MeyersComments to Author 
Author affiliations: The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA (X. Wang, R.F Pasco, Z. Du, M. Petty, S.J. Fox, L. Ancel Meyers); Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA (A.P. Galvani); The University of Texas at Austin Dell Medical School, Austin (M. Pignone, S. Claiborne Johnston); Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA (L. Ancel Meyers)

Main Article

Table 1

Estimated cumulative COVID-19 cases, healthcare requirements, and deaths, Austin–Round Rock, metropolitan statistical area, Texas, USA, March 1–August 17, 2020*

Outcome No measures School closure School closure 
and 50% social distancing School closure and 75% social distancing School closure and 90% social distancing
Cases 1,139,633 
(1,092,754–1,173,408) 1,098,755 
(1,016,794–1,143,147) 596,304 
(215,897–854,094) 34,232 
(2,871–244,959) 2,013 
Hospitalizations 79,120 
(75,373–82,608) 76,698 
(70,091–80,602) 36,534 
(11,474–57,912) 1,889 
(159–13,512) 125 
ICU 13,312 (12,673–13,890) 12,897 (11,786–13,540) 6141 (1,929–9,736) 318 (27–2,273) 21 (5–111)
Ventilators 6,274 (5,973–6,545) 6,077 (5,554–6,377) 2,893 (909–4,587) 150 (13–1,071) 10 (3–53)
Deaths 9,646 (9,031–10,206) 9,324 (8,481–9,954) 3,698 (995–6,751) 176 (13–1,315) 13 (1–70)

*Values are medians (95% prediction intervals) across 100 stochastic simulations based on parameters in Table 1. COVID-19, coronavirus disease; ICU, intensive care unit.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: July 08, 2020
Page updated: September 17, 2020
Page reviewed: September 17, 2020
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