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Volume 26, Number 11—November 2020
Online Report

Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19

Matthew Biggerstaff, Benjamin J. Cowling, Zulma M. Cucunubá, Linh Dinh, Neil M. Ferguson, Huizhi Gao, Verity Hill, Natsuko Imai, Michael A. Johansson, Sarah Kada, Oliver Morgan, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Jonathan A. Polonsky, Pragati Venkata Prasad, Talia M. Quandelacy, Andrew Rambaut, Jordan W. Tappero, Katelijn A. VandemaeleComments to Author , Alessandro Vespignani, K. Lane Warmbrod, Jessica Y. Wong, and for the WHO COVID-19 Modelling Parameters Group
Author affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (M. Biggerstaff, M.A. Johansson, S. Kada, P.V. Prasad, T.M. Quandelacy); University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China (B.J. Cowling, H. Gao, J.Y. Wong); Imperial College London, London, UK (Z.M. Cucunubá, N.M. Ferguson, N. Imai); World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland (L. Dinh, O. Morgan, J.A. Polonsky, J.W. Tappero, K.A. Vandemaele, K.L. Warmbrod); University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK (V. Hill, A. Rambaut); Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA (A. Pastore y Piontti, A. Vespignani); ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy (A. Vespignani)

Main Article

Figure 5

Summary of IFR and CFR estimates for coronavirus disease. Circles or squares indicate mean or median estimates and error bars indicate confidence (dotted line) or credible (full line) intervals. Red indicates peer-reviewed and blue non–peer-reviewed papers (for links to non–peer reviewed papers, see Appendix Table 5). *Range based on »10% ascertainment. †Epidemic growth alone. ‡Epidemic growth along with other parameters. CFR, case fatality ratio; cCFR, laboratory-confirmed CFR; ccCFR, critical

Figure 5. Summary of IFR and CFR estimates for coronavirus disease. Circles or squares indicate mean or median estimates and error bars indicate confidence (dotted line) or credible (full line) intervals. Red indicates peer-reviewed and blue non–peer-reviewed papers (for links to non–peer reviewed papers, see Appendix Table 5). *Range based on »10% ascertainment. †Epidemic growth alone. ‡Epidemic growth along with other parameters. CFR, case fatality ratio; cCFR, laboratory-confirmed CFR; ccCFR, critical care and severe CFR; sCFR, symptomatic CFR; HFR, hospitalization fatality ratio; IFR, infection fatality ratio.

Main Article

1All authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: September 11, 2020
Page updated: September 11, 2020
Page reviewed: September 11, 2020
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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