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Volume 26, Number 12—December 2020

Game Animal Density, Climate, and Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Finland, 2007–2017

Timothée DubComments to Author , Jukka Ollgren, Sari Huusko, Ruut Uusitalo, Mika Siljander, Olli Vapalahti, and Jussi Sane
Author affiliations: European Programme for Intervention Epidemiology Training, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden (T. Dub); Finnish institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland (T. Dub, J. Ollgren, S. Huusko, J. Sane); University of Helsinki, Helsinki (R. Uusitalo, M. Siljander, O. Vapalahti); Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki (O. Vapalahti)

Main Article

Table 2

Single-variable modeling of weather parameters’ influence on tick-borne encephalitis incidence, Finland, 2007–2017

Weather parameters† Coefficient (95% CI of coefficient) IR (95% CI) p value AIC BIC
Monthly average minimum temperature –0.069 (–0.145 to 0.08) 0.93 (0.87–1.01) 0.08 1,263.0 1,302.6
Monthly average mean temperature –0.070 (–0.149 to 0.008) 0.93 (0.86–1.01) 0.08 1,263.1 1,302.6
Monthly average maximum temperature –0.056 (–0.126 to 0.013) 0.95 (0.88–1.01) 0.11 1,263.6 1,303.1
Monthly average of daily temperature variation 0.000 (–0.103 to 0.104) 1.00 (0.90–1.11) 0.99 1,266.1 1,305.6
Proportion of days in a month with a mean temperature >5°C –0.718 (–1.702 to 0.265) 0.49 (0.18–1.30) 0.15 1,264.1 1,303.6
Monthly average of mean temperature surplus‡ –0.057 (–0.135 to 0.021) 0.94 (0.87–1.02) 0.15 1,264.0 1,303.6

*AIC, Akaike information criterion; BIC, Bayesian information criterion; IR, incidence ratio.
†Adjusted for trend over time and 12 mo periodicity.
‡Temperature surplus: mean temperature minus 9°C if ≥9°C, otherwise 0.

Main Article

Page created: September 18, 2020
Page updated: November 19, 2020
Page reviewed: November 19, 2020
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