Recency-Weighted Statistical Modeling Approach to Attribute Illnesses Caused by 4 Pathogens to Food Sources Using Outbreak Data, United States
Michael B. Batz
, LaTonia C. Richardson, Michael C. Bazaco, Cary Chen Parker, Stuart J. Chirtel, Dana Cole1
, Neal J. Golden, Patricia M. Griffin, Weidong Gu2
, Susan K. Schmitt3
, Beverly J. Wolpert, Joanna S. Zablotsky Kufel, and R. Michael Hoekstra4
Author affiliations: US Food and Drug Administration, College Park, Maryland, USA (M.B. Batz, M.C. Bazaco, C. Chen Parker, S.J. Chirtel, B.J. Wolpert); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (L.C. Richardson, D. Cole, P.M. Griffin, W. Gu, R.M. Hoekstra); US Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC, USA (N.J. Golden, S.K. Schmitt, J.S. Zablotsky Kufel)
Figure 3. Estimated percentages of foodborne illnesses attributed to food categories and 90% credibility intervals (error bars) for Salmonella, Escherichia coli O157, Listeria monocytogenes, and Campylobacter, based on analysis of single-pathogen, single-food category outbreaks, Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System, United States, 1998–2012. Percentages are presented in descending order. Open squares indicate that no illnesses were attributed to that food category because no outbreaks were reported for that pathogen in that food category during the study period. Estimates calculated by using analysis of variance model–estimated outbreak illnesses for single pathogen, single food category outbreaks occurring during 1998–2012, with down-weighting of outbreaks that occurred during 1998–2007.
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