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Volume 27, Number 10—October 2021
Research

Predictors of Test Positivity, Mortality, and Seropositivity during the Early Coronavirus Disease Epidemic, Orange County, California, USA

Daniel M. ParkerComments to Author , Tim Bruckner, Verónica M. Vieira, Catalina Medina, Vladimir N. Minin, Philip L. Felgner, Alissa Dratch, Matthew Zahn, Scott M. Bartell, and Bernadette Boden-Albala
Author affiliations: University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA (D.M. Parker, T. Bruckner, V.M. Vieira, C. Medina, V.N. Minin, P.L. Felgner, S.M. Bartell, B. Boden-Albala); Orange County Health Care Agency, Santa Ana, California, USA (A. Dratch, M. Zahn)

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Table 3

Logistic regression results for odds of dying from COVID-19 among persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, Orange County, California, USA, March–August 2020*

Characteristic No. (%)
Adjusted odds ratio (95% CI)†
COVID-19 deaths, n = 1,038 Total cases, n = 42,383
Age, decades


2.56 (2.45–2.67)
Sex
F 450 (43.35) 21,694 (51.19) Referent
M
588 (56.65)
20,689 (48.81)
2.00 (1.73–2.31)
Race or ethnicity
White 345 (33.24) 6,390 (15.08) Referent
Asian 186 (17.92) 1,963 (4.63) 1.54 (1.23–1.93)
Black 15 (1.45) 322 (0.76) 1.06 (0.56–2.02)
Hispanic 92 (8.86) 3,874 (9.14) 1.05 (0.79–1.38)
Native American 3 (0.29) 34 (0.08) 1.46 (0.46–4.58)
Pacific Islander 3 (0.29) 130 (0.31) 0.71 (0.22–2.26)
Unknown
394 (37.96)
29,670 (70)
0.47 (0.4–0.55)
% With college degree in ZIP code
1st quartile 656 (63.2) 23,221 (54.79) Referent
2nd quartile 190 (18.3) 10,223 (24.12) 0.67 (0.52–0.86)
3rd quartile 155 (14.93) 5,691 (13.43) 0.77 (0.54–1.08)
4th quartile
37 (3.56)
3,248 (7.66)
0.51 (0.31–0.84)
% With insurance in ZIP code
1st quartile 566 (54.53) 21,989 (51.88) Referent
2nd quartile 281 (27.07) 11,097 (26.18) 1.04 (0.83–1.29)
3rd quartile 123 (11.85) 5,185 (12.23) 1.36 (0.95–1.93)
4th quartile
68 (6.55)
4,112 (9.7)
0.79 (0.52–1.2)
Population density, × 1,000 persons/km2 0.83 (0.71–0.96)
House crowding index


1.04 (1.02–1.05)
Median income (SD) 0.86 (0.7–1.05)
Time (SD) 0.68 (0.62–0.75)
COVID-19 ICU patients (SD)§ 1.18 (1.05–1.34)

*Values are no. (%) except where indicated. A random intercept was included for ZIP code. The period covered in this analysis is March 1–August 16, 2020. Total numbers of positive cases are larger than the total number reported in Table 2 because of more extensive data curation for mortality data than for general test data. More rows of data were dropped because of missing information (e.g., on age or sex) in the test positivity data than in the mortality data. COVID-19, coronavirus disease; ICU, intensive care unit; SARS-CoV-2, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. †Model intercept represents odds of death for a White female diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 in the 0–4 years age group in a ZIP code in the first quartile of college degree and insured with the average population density in Orange County. The odds of this person testing dying from COVID-19 is estimated to be zero. ‡Estimated percentage of population density in a person’s ZIP code. §Percentage of hospital beds not being used by COVID-19 patients in Orange County.

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Page created: July 23, 2021
Page updated: September 19, 2021
Page reviewed: September 19, 2021
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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