Novel Use of Capture-Recapture Methods to Estimate Completeness of Contact Tracing during an Ebola Outbreak, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018–2020
Jonathan A. Polonsky, Dankmar Böhning, Mory Keita, Steve Ahuka-Mundeke, Justus Nsio-Mbeta, Aaron Aruna Abedi, Mathias Mossoko, Janne Estill, Olivia Keiser, Laurent Kaiser, Zabulon Yoti, Patarawan Sangnawakij, Rattana Lerdsuwansri, and Victor J. Del Rio Vilas
Author affiliations: World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland (J.A. Polonsky); Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, Geneva (J.A. Polonsky, M. Keita, J. Estill, O. Keiser, L. Kaiser); University of Southampton, Southampton, UK (D. Böhning); World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo (M. Keita, Z. Yoti); Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (S. Ahuka-Mundeke, M. Mossoko); Ministere de la Santé Publique, Kinshasa (J. Nsio-Mbeta, A. Aruna Abedi); Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand (P. Sangnawakij, R. Lerdsuwansri); World Health Organization South East Asia Regional Office, New Delhi, India (V.J. Del Rio Vilas)
Figure 1. Epidemic curve and symptom onset dates among Ebola virus disease case-patients, Beni Health Zone, Democratic Republic of the Congo, July 31, 2018–April 26, 2020. A) Epidemic curve by date of symptom onset. Case-patients and contacts were divided into 2 epidemic waves, according to the date of symptom onset among case-patients (first wave, July 31, 2018–February 28, 2019; second wave, March 1, 2019–April 26, 2020). B) Distribution of dates of symptom onset among case-patients, by number of listed contacts. Data were smoothed by using a nonparametric (Gaussian) kernel-based estimate, with automatic bandwidth selection (37.6 days).
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