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Volume 27, Number 5—May 2021
Perspective

Coordinated Strategy for a Model-Based Decision Support Tool for Coronavirus Disease, Utah, USA

Hannah R. Meredith, Emerson Arehart1, Kyra H. Grantz1, Alexander Beams, Theresa Sheets, Richard Nelson, Yue Zhang, Russell G. Vinik, Darryl Barfuss, Jacob C. Pettit, Keegan McCaffrey, Angela C. Dunn, Michael Good, Shannon Frattaroli, Matthew H. Samore, Justin Lessler, Elizabeth C. Lee, and Lindsay T. KeeganComments to Author 
Author affiliations: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA (H.R. Meredith, K.H. Grantz, S. Frattaroli, J. Lessler, E.C. Lee); University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA (E. Arehart, A. Beams, T. Sheets, R. Nelson, Y. Zhang, R.G. Vinik, D. Barfuss, J.C. Pettit, M. Good, M.H. Samore, L.T. Keegan); Utah Department of Health, Salt Lake City (K. McCaffrey, A.C. Dunn); Veterans Affairs Salt Lake City Health Care System, Salt Lake City (M.H. Samore, L.T. Keegan)

Main Article

Figure 4

Sample model outputs from additional model components for a decision support tool for coronavirus disease, Utah, USA. Solid lines indicate the average daily occupancy, and shaded areas represent 95% CIs. A, B) Estimates of Rt for the entire state of Utah (A) and for 4 counties (B). The dashed blue line at the end of each time course represents the period within 1 serial interval from the end of the available data, where estimates of Rt are not accurate; dashed black line depicts Rt = 1, below which the disease will disappear and above which the disease will spread. C) Post–acute-care occupancy for each of 3 care types: home healthcare, hospice care, and skilled nursing facility. Rt, real-time effective reproduction number.

Figure 4. Sample model outputs from additional model components for a decision support tool for coronavirus disease, Utah, USA. Solid lines indicate the average daily occupancy, and shaded areas represent 95% CIs. A, B) Estimates of Rt for the entire state of Utah (A) and for 4 counties (B). The dashed blue line at the end of each time course represents the period within 1 serial interval from the end of the available data, where estimates of Rt are not accurate; dashed black line depicts Rt = 1, below which the disease will disappear and above which the disease will spread. C) Post–acute-care occupancy for each of 3 care types: home healthcare, hospice care, and skilled nursing facility. Rt, real-time effective reproduction number.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: March 26, 2021
Page updated: April 20, 2021
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