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Volume 28, Number 1—January 2022
Research

Transmission Dynamics of Large Coronavirus Disease Outbreak in Homeless Shelter, Chicago, Illinois, USA, 2020

Yi-Shin Chang, Stockton Mayer, Elizabeth S. Davis, Evelyn Figueroa, Paul Leo, Patricia W. Finn1Comments to Author , and David L. Perkins1
Author affiliations: University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA (Y.-S. Chang, S. Mayer, E. Figueroa, P. Leo, P.W. Finn, D.L. Perkins); Rush University Medical Center, Chicago (E.S. Davis)

Main Article

Table 3

Fitted model parameter values in study of transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease outbreak in homeless shelter, Chicago, Illinois, USA, 2020*

Parameter Fitted value Description of parameter
β0 0.60 Initial β
βf_pct_β0 0.11 Final β as percentage of β0
k 2.0 Rate of transformation of β
tTrans 23 Day where β reaches halfway between β0 and βf
σs 0.098 Rate of transition from E to Is compartment = 1/(incubation period) × (% symptomatic)
σa 0.26 Rate of transition from E to Ia compartment = 1/(incubation period) × (% asymptomatic)
Asymptomatic percentage 0.73 Asymptomatic percentage
ϒsp 0.15 Rate of transition from Is to Rs+ compartment = 1/(infectious period for symptomatic persons)
ϒap 0.13 Rate of transition from Ia to Ra+ compartment = 1/(infectious period for asymptomatic persons)
ϒsn 0.046 Rate of transition from Rs+ to R- compartment = 1/[(duration of RT-PCR–positivity) – (infectious period)] for symptomatic persons
ϒan 0.12 Rate of transition from Ra+ to R- compartment = 1/[(duration of RT-PCR–positivity) – (infectious period]) for asymptomatic persons
α 0.32 Rate of detection of I symptomatic persons through screening
λ0_pct_β 1 Rate of transmission between persons in Isolsoft and Susceptible compartment, as a percentage of β
λisol_pct_β 1 Rate of transmission between persons in isolation units and Susceptible compartment, as a percentage of β
ρ 1/14 d* Rate of return from isolation units to Recovered compartment = 1/[14 d]†
PCR sensitivity 0.90 RT-PCR sensitivity
ω0 0.75 Rate of hospital admission of Infectious symptomatic persons before screening
ω 0.39 Rate of hospital admission of Isolsoft symptomatic persons during phase 2

*Details of optimization and calculation can be found in the Appendix. E, exposed; I, infectious; RT-PCR, reverse transcription PCR. †Value not fitted.

Main Article

1These senior authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: October 08, 2021
Page updated: December 20, 2021
Page reviewed: December 20, 2021
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