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Volume 29, Number 3—March 2023
Research

COVID-19 Test Allocation Strategy to Mitigate SARS-CoV-2 Infections across School Districts

Remy Pasco, Kaitlyn Johnson, Spencer J. Fox, Kelly A. Pierce, Maureen Johnson-León, Michael Lachmann, David P. Morton, and Lauren Ancel MeyersComments to Author 
Author affiliations: The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA (R. Pasco, K. Johnson, S.J. Fox, K.A. Pierce, M. Johnson-León, L.A. Meyers); Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA (M. Lachmann, L.A. Meyers); Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA (D.P. Morton)

Main Article

Figure 4

Test allocations and estimated infection rates based on testing frequency in a COVID-19 test allocation strategy to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 infections across 11 school districts in the Austin Independent School District, Austin, Texas, USA. A) Testing allocation for 3 testing strategies. Orange dashed line indicates pro rata strategy; blue bars indicate optimized strategy to minimize the maximum risk; diamonds indicate optimized strategy considering only variation in community transmission risks. Numbers to the left of the y-axis indicate the assumed on-campus reproduction number for each school. B) The median percent of students infected on-campus under the optimized strategy (blue) and pro rata strategy (orange), over a 10-week period; arrows indicate increases or decreases in infection rates. We modeled infections rates by using 3 testing strategies: pro rata, in which all schools test their students once per every 14 days; optimized to minimize the maximum risk of any school, considering variation in both community and in-school transmission risks; optimized considering only variation in community transmission risks. Values are averaged across 300 simulations (Appendix Table 4). The model assumes that classrooms quarantine for 14 days following a positive test.

Figure 4. Test allocations and estimated infection rates based on testing frequency in a COVID-19 test allocation strategy to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 infections across 11 school districts in the Austin Independent School District, Austin, Texas, USA. A) Testing allocation for 3 testing strategies. Orange dashed line indicates pro rata strategy; blue bars indicate optimized strategy to minimize the maximum risk; diamonds indicate optimized strategy considering only variation in community transmission risks. Numbers to the left of the y-axis indicate the assumed on-campus reproduction number for each school. B) The median percent of students infected on-campus under the optimized strategy (blue) and pro rata strategy (orange), over a 10-week period; arrows indicate increases or decreases in infection rates. We modeled infections rates by using 3 testing strategies: pro rata, in which all schools test their students once per every 14 days; optimized to minimize the maximum risk of any school, considering variation in both community and in-school transmission risks; optimized considering only variation in community transmission risks. Values are averaged across 300 simulations (Appendix Table 4). The model assumes that classrooms quarantine for 14 days following a positive test.

Main Article

Page created: December 31, 2022
Page updated: February 19, 2023
Page reviewed: February 19, 2023
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