Volume 5, Number 5—October 1999
Research
The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Priorities for Intervention
Martin I. Meltzer
, Nancy J. Cox, and Keiji Fukuda
, Nancy J. Cox, and Keiji Fukuda
Table 6
Costs (direct and indirect) of influenza pandemic per gross attack rate:a deaths, hospitalizations, outpatients, illnesses, and total costs (in 1995 US$)
| Cost per gross attack rate ($ millions) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% | 35% | |
| Deaths | |||||
| Mean | 59,288 | 79,051 | 98,814 | 118,577 | 138,340 |
| 5th percentile | 23,800 | 31,733 | 39,666 | 47,599 | 55,532 |
| 95th percentile | 94,907 | 126,543 | 158,179 | 189,815 | 221,451 |
| Hospitalizations | |||||
| Mean | 1,928 | 2,571 | 3,214 | 3,856 | 4,499 |
| 5th percentile | 1,250 | 1,667 | 2,084 | 2,501 | 2,917 |
| 95th percentile | 2,683 | 3,579 | 4,472 | 5,367 | 6,261 |
| Outpatients | |||||
| Mean | 5,708 | 7,611 | 9,513 | 11,416 | 13,318 |
| 5th percentile | 4,871 | 6,495 | 8,119 | 9,742 | 11,366 |
| 95th percentile | 6,557 | 8,742 | 10,928 | 13,113 | 15,299 |
| Ill, no medical care soughtb | |||||
| Mean | 4,422 | 5,896 | 7,370 | 8,844 | 10,317 |
| 5th percentile | 3,270 | 4,360 | 5,450 | 6,540 | 7,629 |
| 95th percentile | 5,557 | 7,409 | 9,262 | 11,114 | 12,967 |
| Grand totals | |||||
| Mean | 71,346 | 95,128 | 118,910 | 142,692 | 166,474 |
| 5th percentile | 35,405 | 47,206 | 59,008 | 70,810 | 82,611 |
| 95th percentile | 106,988 | 142,650 | 178,313 | 213,975 | 249,638 |
aGross attack rate = percentage of clinical influenza illness per population.
bPersons who become clinically ill due to influenza but do not seek medical care; illness has an economic impact (e.g., half day off work).
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