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Volume 17, Number 8—August 2011
Research

Early Warning System for West Nile Virus Risk Areas, California, USA

Ryan M. Carney1Comments to Author , Sean C. Ahearn, Alan McConchie2, Carol A. Glaser, Cynthia Jean, Chris Barker, Bborie Park, Kerry Padgett, Erin Parker, Ervic Aquino, and Vicki L. Kramer
Author affiliations: Author affiliations: California Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA (R.M. Carney, C. Glaser, C. Jean, K. Padgett, E. Parker, E. Aquino); City University of New York, New York, New York, USA (S.C. Ahearn, A. McConchie); University of California, Davis, California, USA (C. Barker, B. Park); California Department of Public Health, Sacramento, California, USA (V. Kramer)

Main Article

Table 4

DYCAST prediction rates of reported human West Nile virus cases, by survey answer, California, 2006–2007*

Year and activity % (No.) agencies Prediction rate
 Prediction rate (excluding outlier)†
% Cases (no./total) Rate ratio (95% CI) p value % Cases (no./total) Rate ratio (95% CI) p value
2006
Larviciding 10.06 (2.45–41.32) 0.001 NA NA
Yes 85.0 (34) 41.9 (52/124) 41.9 (52/124)
No 15.0 (6) 4.2 (2/48) 0 (0/5)
Adulticiding 10.91 (2.65–44.88) 0.001 NA NA
Yes 74.4 (29) 39.7 (48/121) 39.7 (48/121)
No
 25.6 (10)
 3.6 (2/55)
0 (0/12)
2007
Larviciding 10.16 (1.41–73.00) 0.021 5.63 (0.66–48.15) 0.115
Yes 72.2 (13) 56.4 (79/140) 31.3 (5/16)
No 27.8 (5) 5.6 (1/18) 5.6 (1/18)
Adulticiding 0.37 (0.15–0.91) 0.031 1.88 (0.22–16.05) 0.566
Yes 47.1 (8) 20.8 (5/24) 20.8 (5/24)
No 52.9 (9) 56.4 (75/133) 11.1 (1/9)

*DYCAST, Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time; CI, confidence interval; NA, not applicable. Agencies were asked whether they used DYCAST to assist larviciding, adulticiding; agencies that did not respond to survey, as well as answers of “Don’t know” (2006: larviciding: n = 2, adulticiding: n = 4) and missing data (2006: larviciding: n = 5, adulticiding: n = 4; 2007: adulticiding: n = 1), were omitted from analysis. Number of analyzed agencies with reported human cases: 2006: larviciding: “Yes”: n = 21, “No”: n = 4; adulticiding: “Yes”: n = 19, “No”: n = 7; 2007: larviciding: “Yes”: n = 6, “No”: n = 4; adulticiding: “Yes”: n = 5, “No”: n = 4. p values are 2 tailed; statistically significant associations (p<0.05) are in boldface.
†Outlier, with respect to total number of cases, was a single agency with 43 and 124 cases in 2006 and 2007, respectively.

Main Article

1Current affiliation: Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA.

2Current affiliation: University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

Page created: August 15, 2011
Page updated: August 15, 2011
Page reviewed: August 15, 2011
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