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Volume 21, Number 3—March 2015
Research

Evaluation of the Benefits and Risks of Introducing Ebola Community Care Centers, Sierra Leone

Adam J. KucharskiComments to Author , Anton Camacho, Francesco Checchi, Ron Waldman, Rebecca F. Grais, Jean-Clement Cabrol, Sylvie Briand, Marc Baguelin, Stefan Flasche, Sebastian Funk, and W. John Edmunds
Author affiliations: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK (A.J. Kucharski, A. Camacho, M. Baguelin, S. Flasche, S. Funk, W.J. Edmunds); Save the Children, London (F. Checchi); Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA (R. Waldman); Epicentre, Paris, France (R.F. Grais); Médecins sans Frontières, Geneva, Switzerland (J.-C. Cabrol); World Health Organization, Geneva (S. Briand)

Main Article

Table

Parameters used in a transmission model for evaluating the benefits and risks of introducing CCCs into Western Area, Sierra Leone*

Parameter Value Source
Mean time from symptom onset to outcome
Ebola virus–positive patients 9.5 d (4)
Ebola virus–negative patients
 7.0 d
 Assumed
Mean time from symptom onset to admission
To ETC 4.6 d (4)
To CCC
 3.0 d
 Assumed
Mean time from exposure to symptom onset (latent period)
 9.4 d
 (4)
Proportion of patients with Ebola-like symptoms in Western Area who are Ebola-positive 50.0% (1)
Population of Western Area
 1.4 million
 (17)
Probability that an Ebola virus–negative patient seeking care in CCC will be exposed to Ebola virus Varies† NA
Reduction in transmission from infected patients to the community as a result of being in CCC
 Varies†
 NA
Basic reproduction no. (95% CrI)‡ 1.94 (1.86–1.98) Estimated
No. infectious persons on August 16, 2014 (95% CrI)§ 51 (39.0–57.0) Estimated
Proportion of cases in Western Area reported in Sierra Leone Ministry of Health situation reports (95% CrI) 0.42 (0.33–0.46) Estimated
Variability in accuracy of reports, define as standard deviation of proportion of cases reported (95% CrI) 0.014 (0.010–0.024) Estimated

*CCC, Ebola community care center; CrI, credible interval; ETC, Ebola treatment center; NA, not applicable.
†In the analysis, the full range of possible values for these parameters is tested.
‡Basic reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary cases generated by a typical infectious patient at the start of an epidemic
§This parameter represents the initial no. of infectious patients at the start of the model simulation. Additional information is available at https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_BzCqSK1DZaYnRoeWtHOTU2TVk/.

Main Article

Page created: February 18, 2015
Page updated: February 18, 2015
Page reviewed: February 18, 2015
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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