Volume 22, Number 1—January 2016
Dispatch
Effectiveness of Ring Vaccination as Control Strategy for Ebola Virus Disease
Adam J. Kucharski
, Rosalind M. Eggo, Conall Watson, Anton Camacho, Sebastian Funk, and W. John Edmunds
, Rosalind M. Eggo, Conall Watson, Anton Camacho, Sebastian Funk, and W. John Edmunds
Table
Estimated total cases and outbreak duration in partial control scenario with 5 index cases initially by using the model of Ebola virus transmission*
| Probability of case missed | No vaccination | Ring vaccination | Mass vaccination |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median no. cases (95% CI) | |||
| 10% | 42 (14–235) | 30 (13–79) | 13 (7–60) |
| 20% | 63 (15–551) | 39 (14–131) | 13 (7–57) |
| 30% | 104 (17–2,660) | 53 (15–229) | 13 (6–48) |
| 40% |
296 (20–2,410) |
78 (18–452) |
13 (6–46) |
| Duration of outbreak, d (95% CI) | |||
| 10% | 87 (28–278) | 62 (26–145) | 41 (12–139) |
| 20% | 123 (33–480) | 83 (31–214) | 43 (11–149) |
| 30% | 185 (43–1,020) | 110 (36–319) | 47 (11–142) |
| 40% | 364 (51–1,150) | 149 (45–486) | 47 (9–147) |
*Model assumes 80% vaccine efficacy.
Page created: December 18, 2015
Page updated: December 18, 2015
Page reviewed: December 18, 2015
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.