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Volume 22, Number 12—December 2016
Synopsis

Assessing the Epidemic Potential of RNA and DNA Viruses

Mark E.J. WoolhouseComments to Author , Liam Brierley, Chris McCaffery, and Sam Lycett
Author affiliations: University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK

Main Article

Figure 4

Phylogenetic trees for simulated emerging infectious disease outbreaks caused by RNA and DNA viruses in a mixed population of 1,000 human and 5,000 nonhuman hosts. Trees were constructed by using a standard susceptible–infected–removed model (6). For each of 3 infection scenarios in nonhuman hosts (black lines), rare zoonotic transmission events (blue lines), human-to-human transmission (red lines), and human cases (red circles) are indicated. For the nonhuman population R0 = 2 throughout. Trans

Figure 4. Phylogenetic trees for simulated emerging infectious disease outbreaks caused by RNA and DNA viruses in a mixed population of 1,000 human and 5,000 nonhuman hosts. Trees were constructed by using a standard susceptible–infected–removed model (6). For each of 3 infection scenarios in nonhuman hosts (black lines), rare zoonotic transmission events (blue lines), human-to-human transmission (red lines), and human cases (red circles) are indicated. For the nonhuman population R0 = 2 throughout. Transmissibility within the human populations varies from A) spillover: no human−human transmission (R0 = 0); B) limited human−human transmission with R0 = 1; and C) epidemic spread within humans (R0>1). A maximum of 100 infections are randomly sampled from each population in each simulated outbreak.

Main Article

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Page created: November 17, 2016
Page updated: November 17, 2016
Page reviewed: November 17, 2016
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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