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Volume 28, Number 3—March 2022
Research

Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of COVID-19 Hospitalizations Using Syndromic Healthcare Data, Sweden, 2020

Armin SprecoComments to Author , Anna Jöud, Olle Eriksson, Kristian Soltesz, Reidar Källström, Örjan Dahlström, Henrik Eriksson, Joakim Ekberg, Carl-Oscar Jonson, Carl-Johan Fraenkel, Torbjörn Lundh, Philip Gerlee, Fredrik Gustafsson, and Toomas Timpka
Author affiliations: Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden (A. Spreco, O. Eriksson, R. Källström, Ö. Dahlström, H. Eriksson J. Ekberg, C.-O. Jonson, F. Gustafsson, T. Timpka); Region Östergötland, Linköping (A. Spreco, R. Källström, J. Ekberg, C.-O. Jonson, T. Timpka); Lund University, Lund, Sweden (A. Jöud, K. Soltesz); Skåne University Hospital, Lund (A. Jöud. C.-J. Fraenkel); Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden (T. Lundh, P. Gerlee); Gothenburg University, Gothenburg (T. Lundh, P. Gerlee)

Main Article

Figure 2

Local nowcasting performance in Östergötland County, Sweden, during the first wave of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), March 22–June 30, 2020. A) Weekly average of daily incidence of COVID-19, hospitalizations/week/100,000 population. The horizontal line indicates lowest incidence for reliable predictions (1.5 daily hospitalizations/100,000 population). B) Weekly average of daily correlation between telenursing data and COVID-19 hospitalizations from the nowcasting date through the period covered by the time lag for cough by adult (blue line) and fever by adult (red line). C) Weekly average of daily MAPE per week for cough by adult (blue line) and fever by adult (red line). MAPE, mean absolute percentage error.

Figure 2. Local nowcasting performance in Östergötland County, Sweden, during the first wave of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), March 22–June 30, 2020. A) Weekly average of daily incidence of COVID-19, hospitalizations/week/100,000 population. The horizontal line indicates lowest incidence for reliable predictions (1.5 daily hospitalizations/100,000 population). B) Weekly average of daily correlation between telenursing data and COVID-19 hospitalizations from the nowcasting date through the period covered by the time lag for cough by adult (blue line) and fever by adult (red line). C) Weekly average of daily MAPE per week for cough by adult (blue line) and fever by adult (red line). MAPE, mean absolute percentage error.

Main Article

Page created: January 11, 2022
Page updated: February 21, 2022
Page reviewed: February 21, 2022
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