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Volume 28, Number 4—April 2022

Citywide Integrated Aedes aegypti Mosquito Surveillance as Early Warning System for Arbovirus Transmission, Brazil

André S. Leandro, Wagner A. Chiba de Castro, Renata D. Lopes, Robson M. Delai, Daniel A.M. Villela, and Rafael Maciel de-Freitas
Author affiliations: Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Foz do Iguaçu, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil (A.S. Leandro, R.D. Lopes); Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (A.S. Leandro, R. Maciel-de-Freitas); Universidade Federal Latino-Americana, Foz do Iguaçu (W.A. Chiba de Castro, R.D. Lopes); Centro de Medicina Tropical da Tríplice Fronteira, Foz do Iguaçu (R.M. Delai); Programa de Computação Científica, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro (D.A.M. Villela); Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany (R. Maciel-de-Freitas)

Main Article


Akaike information criteria results ranking the most parsimonious a priori models (descending order) that predict the incidence of dengue cases based on surveys of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil*

Scenarios Index ΔAICc wAICc
After 4 weeks Mosquitoes per inhabitant 0.0 0.6079
Adult density 0.9 0.3908

Trap positivity
After 2 weeks Adult density 406.0 <0.001
Trap positivity 407.8 <0.001
Mosquitoes per inhabitant 407.8 <0.001

After 6 weeks Mosquitoes per inhabitant 1,151.2 <0.001
Adult density 1,156.3 <0.001

Trap positivity
During the same week Adult density 2,146.8 <0.001
Mosquitoes per inhabitant 2,148.0 <0.001
Trap positivity 2,151.3 <0.001
House 2,159.7 <0.001

After 8 weeks Adult density 2,286.3 <0.001
Mosquitoes per inhabitant 2,288.5 <0.001
Trap positivity 2,297.6 <0.001

*Based on p≤0.05 in a generalized linear mixed model. Each model was denoted as a specific scenario, from the same week to 8 weeks after entomologic surveys, and index. House and Breteau indices are based on larval surveys of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes; mosquito per inhabitant, trap positivity, and adult density indices are based on adult trapping. ΔAICc, difference in corrected Akaiks information criteria; wAICc, weights of corrected Akaike information criteria.

Main Article

Page created: February 16, 2022
Page updated: March 19, 2022
Page reviewed: March 19, 2022
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