Volume 9, Number 5—May 2003
Research
Pandemic Influenza and Healthcare Demand in the Netherlands: Scenario Analysis
Table 2
Input variables used to calculate potential impact of influenza pandemic in terms of healthcare outcomes and the effect of various interventions, the Netherlands
Input variable | Age groups (y) | Sources | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
<19 | 20–64 | >65 | ||
Population | 3.8×106 | 9.7×106 | 2.1×106 | Statistics Netherlands |
Population at high risk | 0.09×106 | 0.6×106 | 0.7×106 | (38–40) |
Age distribution of influenza cases | 34.3 | 60.4 | 5.2 | As in a regular epidemic in general practice (41)a |
Current vaccination degree | (42,43) | |||
Population at low risk | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.20 | |
Population at high risk | 0.65 | 0.75 | 0.80 | |
Efficacy influenza vaccine | 80% | 80% | 80% | (13–15) |
Invasive pneumococcal infections | (12,16,17) | |||
Related hospitalizations | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
Efficacy vaccine | 64% | 64% | 64% | |
Hospitalization rate (per 100,000) for influenza | As in a regular epidemic (44)a | |||
Population at low risk | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2 | |
Population at high risk | 28 | 28 | 10 | |
Hospitalization rate (per 100,000) for influenza-related pneumonia | As in a regular epidemic (44)a | |||
Population at low risk | 0.3 | 0.3 | 38 | |
Population at high risk | 72 | 72 | 175 | |
Death rate (per 100,000) | As in a regular epidemic (45)a | |||
Low risk population | 0.6 | 0.6 | 26.2 | |
High risk population | 29.6 | 29.6 | 84.9 |
aAssuming that during a regular epidemic 10% of the population becomes ill.
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