Volume 19, Number 11—November 2013
Research
Capture–Recapture Method for Estimating Annual Incidence of Imported Dengue, France, 2007–2010
Table 2
Annual number of dengue cases estimated from mandatory notification and laboratory network surveillance systems by using Chao estimator, stratified according to geographic area and period of the year, metropolitan France, 2007–2010*
No. observed cases |
Chao estimator |
|||||||
System |
||||||||
Year, region, period |
MN |
LN |
Common cases |
Estimated no. cases (95% CI) |
Completeness of MN, % (95% CI) |
Completeness of LN, % (95% CI) |
||
2007 | ||||||||
Southeast, May–Nov | 4 | 21 | 4 | 39 (26–87) | 10.2 (2.4–17.2) | 53.8 (12.6–90.4) | ||
Other areas, remainder of year | 52 | 365 | 21 | 2,070 (1,444–3,071) | 2.5 (1.6–3.9) | 17.6 (10.9–27.1) | ||
Total |
56 |
386 |
25 |
2,109 (1,481–3,109) |
2.7 (1.6–4.0) |
18.3 (11.3–27.5) |
||
2008 | ||||||||
Southeast, May–Nov | 6 | 11 | 4 | 18 (14–37) | 33.2 (7.6–44.8) | 60.9 (13.9–82.2) | ||
Other areas, remainder of year | 58 | 293 | 42 | 733 (595–938) | 7.9 (5.9–10.0) | 40.0 (30.0–50.6) | ||
Total |
64 |
304 |
46 |
751 (613–956) |
8.5 (6.3–10.6) |
40.5 (29.8–50.5) |
||
2009 | ||||||||
Southeast, May–Nov | 5 | 19 | 4 | 36 (24–79) | 13.9 (3.1–22.9) | 52.8 (11.6–87.2) | ||
Other areas, remainder of year | 63 | 331 | 38 | 1,021 (806–1,339) | 6.2 (4.5–8.1) | 32.4 (23.7–42.4) | ||
Total |
68 |
350 |
42 |
1,057 (841–1,375) |
6.4 (4.6–8.2) |
33.1 (23.6–42.4) |
||
2010 | ||||||||
Southeast, May–Nov | 91 | 174 | 75 | 234 (216–264) | 38.9 (33.2–42.7) | 74.3 (63.6–81.6) | ||
Other areas, remainder of year | 494 | 1,951 | 354 | 4,222 (3,932–4,558) | 11.7 (10.8–12.6) | 46.2 (42.7–49.7) | ||
Total |
585 |
2,125 |
429 |
4,456 (4,164–4,792) |
13.1 (12.2–14.1) |
47.7 (44.2–51.1) |
||
2007–2010 | ||||||||
Southeast, May–Nov | 106 | 225 | 87 | 327 (294–382) | 32.4 (17.2–35.7) | 68.8 (36.5–75.8) | ||
Other areas, remainder of year | 667 | 2,940 | 455 | 8,047 (7,217–9,045) | 8.3 (7.1–9.2) | 36.5 (31.1–40.7) | ||
Total | 773 | 3,165 | 542 | 8,374 (7,543–9,371) | 9.2 (8.2–10.7) | 37.8 (33.5–43.8) |