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Volume 26, Number 4—April 2020
Research

Comprehensive Profiling of Zika Virus Risk with Natural and Artificial Mitigating Strategies, United States

Michael J. Mina1, L. Beryl Guterman1Comments to Author , Kristen E. Allen, and Saad B. Omer
Author affiliations: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA (M.J. Mina); Harvard Medical School, Boston (M.J. Mina); Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York, USA (L.B. Guterman); Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (L.B. Guterman, K.E. Allen); Yale Institute for Global Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA (S.B. Omer); Yale School of Medicine, New Haven (S.B. Omer); Yale School of Public Health, New Haven (S.B. Omer)

Main Article

Figure 1

County-level Zika virus risk profiling, United States including Puerto Rico. A) Probability of initial transmission from an index case introduced during peak vector abundance, calculated as the proportion of simulations with >1 transmission event, for every county. B) Proportion of population infected. C) Total case counts for the southeastern United States (nationwide data depicted in Appendix Figure 6) when transmission does occur after index cases during peak abundance (median calculated a

Figure 1. County-level Zika virus risk profiling, United States including Puerto Rico. A) Probability of initial transmission from an index case introduced during peak vector abundance, calculated as the proportion of simulations with >1 transmission event, for every county. B) Proportion of population infected. C) Total case counts for the southeastern United States (nationwide data depicted in Appendix Figure 6) when transmission does occur after index cases during peak abundance (median calculated among simulation with >1 transmission event). D) Monthly incidence and duration of outbreaks. Shown is the median monthly incidence of Zika virus infections from August index cases. E) Total number of simulated exposures in Puerto Rico ending December 31, 2016. F) Final epidemic size (incidence) at the end of simulations. For panels E and F, imports into each municipality corresponded temporally with initial cases reported in 2015 and 2016. All simulations assess counties and municipalities independently.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: March 17, 2020
Page updated: March 17, 2020
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The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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