Skip directly to site content Skip directly to page options Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link
Volume 27, Number 12—December 2021

Novel Use of Capture-Recapture Methods to Estimate Completeness of Contact Tracing during an Ebola Outbreak, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018–2020

Jonathan A. Polonsky, Dankmar Böhning, Mory Keita, Steve Ahuka-Mundeke, Justus Nsio-Mbeta, Aaron Aruna Abedi, Mathias Mossoko, Janne Estill, Olivia Keiser, Laurent Kaiser, Zabulon Yoti, Patarawan Sangnawakij, Rattana Lerdsuwansri, and Victor J. Del Rio VilasComments to Author 
Author affiliations: World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland (J.A. Polonsky); Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, Geneva (J.A. Polonsky, M. Keita, J. Estill, O. Keiser, L. Kaiser); University of Southampton, Southampton, UK (D. Böhning); World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo (M. Keita, Z. Yoti); Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (S. Ahuka-Mundeke, M. Mossoko); Ministere de la Santé Publique, Kinshasa (J. Nsio-Mbeta, A. Aruna Abedi); Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand (P. Sangnawakij, R. Lerdsuwansri); World Health Organization South East Asia Regional Office, New Delhi, India (V.J. Del Rio Vilas)

Main Article

Table 1

Multivariable logistic regression for predictors of loss to followup of contacts of Ebola virus disease case-patients, Beni Health Zone, Democratic Republic of the Congo, July 31, 2018–April 26, 2020*

Independent variable No. contacts Unadjusted
OR (95% CI) p value OR (95% CI) p value
F 41,349 Referent Referent
1.07 (1.02–1.12)

1.06 (1.01–1.11)
Age group, y
0–14 20,616 Referent Referent
15–29 26,142 1.18 (1.11–1.25) <0.001 1.19 (1.12–1.27) <0.001
30–44 17,665 1.16 (1.09–1.24) <0.001 1.18 (1.10–1.26) <0.001
45–59 6,157 1.56 (1.43–1.70) <0.001 1.55 (1.43–1.69) <0.001
1.64 (1.46–1.84)

1.65 (1.47–1.86)
Epidemic wave†
First wave 14,374 Referent Referent
Second wave 66,182 0.85 (0.81–0.90) <0.001 0.83 (0.79–0.88) <0.001

*OR, odds ratio. †Contacts were divided into 2 epidemic waves according to the date of symptom onset of their associated primary case-patient (first wave, July 31, 2018–February 28, 2019; second wave, March 1, 2019–April 26, 2020).

Main Article

Page created: October 06, 2021
Page updated: November 19, 2021
Page reviewed: November 19, 2021
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.