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Volume 24, Number 2—February 2018
Synopsis

Ecologic Features of Plague Outbreak Areas, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2004–2014

Aaron Aruna AbediComments to Author , Jean-Christophe Shako, Jean Gaudart, Bertrand Sudre, Benoit Kebela Ilunga, Stomy Karhemere Bi Shamamba, Georges Diatta, Bernard Davoust, Jean-Jacques Muyembe Tamfum, Renaud Piarroux, and Martine Piarroux
Author affiliations: Ministry of Health, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (A.A. Abedi, B.K. Ilunga); Plague Reference Laboratory, Bunia, Democratic Republic of the Congo (J.-C. Shako); Aix Marseille University, INSERM, IRD, SESSTIM, Marseille, France (J. Gaudart); UMR 6249 Chrono-environment CNRS/INRA/UFC, Franche-Comté University, Besançon, France (B. Sudre); National Institute of Biomedical Research, Kinshasa (S.K.B. Shamamba, J.-J.M. Tamfum); Aix Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, INSERM, URMITE, Dakar, Senegal (G. Diatta); Aix Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, INSERM, URMITE, Marseille (B. Davoust); Pierre and Marie Curie University, INSERM, IPLESP, Paris, France (R. Piarroux, M. Piarroux)

Main Article

Table 2

Results of univariate analysis of environmental variables of pneumonic plague, Orientale Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2004–2014*

Variable Estimate SE t value p. value
Area
 0.0005266
 0.000142
 3.709
 <0.001
Ecosystem†
Tropical 9.598 0.02713 353.8 <0.001
Dry tropical −0.87697 0.01066 −82.29 <0.001
Equatorial −5.7475 0.1096 −52.44 <0.001
Tropical mountain
 0.5238
 0.006693
 78.26
 <0.001
Elevation, m
Mean 0.07305 0.001006 72.62 <0.001
SD
 −0.1236
 0.002218
 −55.75
 <0.001
MODIS‡
Water −217.2609 1.0011 −217.00 <0.001
Evergreen needleleaf forest −18590.00 2116.00 −8.786 <0.001
Evergreen broadleaf forest 3.152 0.04331 72.78 <0.001
Deciduous broadleaf forest 908.7303 1.5165 599.2 <0.001
Mixed forest 25.4324 0.5472 46.48 <0.001
Closed shrublands 10081.9545 63.4111 159.0 <0.001
Woody savannas 3.9340 0.0521 75.51 <0.001
Savannas −51.0000 1.1043 −46.18 <0.001
Grasslands −139.8523 2.7516 −50.83 <0.001
Permanent wetlands −40.8106 0.2148 −190.0 <0.001
Croplands −7.9310 0.2875 −27.58 <0.001
Urban and built-up 96.1737 0.7640 125.9 <0.001
Cropland/natural vegetation 1.9249 0.0241 79.88 <0.001
Snow and ice 5639.5053 106.2298 53.09 <0.001
Barren/sparsely vegetated
 17639.579
 97.10
 −181.7
 <0.001
Mean rain accumulation, mm, TRMM3B43§ 0.5343 0.005531 96.61 <0.001

*Environmental variables with p<0.2. These variables were kept for multivariate analysis. Negative estimates represent variables protective against plague, positive estimates represent variables increasing plague risk.
†Ecoclimatic zones defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (http://www.fao.org/ag/AGAInfo/programmes/documents/livatl2/africaezmaps.htm). These ecosystems are built incorporating repeated measures of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, temperature, rainfall, length of growing period, and elevation.
‡Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/dataset_discovery/modis/modis_products_table/mcd12q1).
§Tropical Rainfall Measure Mission 3B43 version 7 (http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/precipitation/documentation/TRMM_README/TRMM_3B43_readme.shtml).

Main Article

Page created: January 17, 2018
Page updated: January 17, 2018
Page reviewed: January 17, 2018
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