Volume 24, Number 2—February 2018
Research
Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone1
Table 3
Score | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | PPV (95% CI) | NPV (95% CI) | % Correctly classified (95% CI) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 100 | 1 (0–4) | 31 (25–38) | 100 | 31 (25–38) |
1 | 97 (89–100) | 4 (1–8) | 31 (25–38) | 71 (29–96) | 32 (26–39) |
2 | 97 (89–100) | 13 (8–20) | 33 (27–40) | 91 (70–99) | 39 (32–46) |
3 | 94 (85–98) | 30 (22–37) | 37 (30–45) | 91 (79–98) | 49 (42–56) |
4 | 86 (75–93) | 49 (40–57) | 43 (34–52) | 89 (80–95) | 60 (53–67) |
5 | 77 (64–86) | 67 (58–74) | 51 (40–61) | 87 (79–92) | 70 (63–76) |
6 | 58 (45–70) | 82 (75–88) | 59 (46–71) | 81 (74–87) | 75 (68–80) |
7 | 44 (31–57) | 92 (86–96) | 70 (54–83) | 79 (72–85) | 77 (71–82) |
8 | 23 (14–35) | 95 (90–98) | 68 (45–86) | 74 (67–80) | 73 (67–79) |
9 | 11 (5–21) | 98 (94–100) | 70 (35–93) | 71 (64–77) | 71 (64–77) |
10 |
5 (1–13) |
99 (96–100) |
75 (19–99) |
70 (63–76) |
70 (63–76) |
WHO case definition† | 98 (95–99) | 5 (3–7) | 30 (27–34) | 84 (66–95) | 33 (29–36) |
*EVD, Ebola virus disease; NPV, negative predictive value; PEP, pediatric Ebola predictor; PPV, positive predictive value; WHO, World Health Organization.
†Late-2014 WHO case definition with pediatric differentiations.
1Preliminary results from this study were presented at the 26th European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Amsterdam, Netherlands, April 9–12, 2016; and the 34th Annual Meeting of the European Society for Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Brighton, UK, May 10–14, 2016.
2These authors contributed equally to this article.
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