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Volume 29, Number 9—September 2023
Synopsis

Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan

Saverio Bellizzi1Comments to Author , Nicholas Letchford1, Keyrellous Adib1, William J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, Lora Alsawalha, Alessio Santoro, Maria C. Profili, Ricardo Aguas, Christian Popescu, Lubna Al Ariqi, Lisa White, Wail Hayajneh, Nathir Obeidat, and Pierre Nabeth
Author affiliations: World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu); World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth); Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White); SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh); Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)

Main Article

Figure 2

Model-predicted reported number of COVID-19 cases and cumulative number of associated deaths under scenarios A, B, C, and the baseline scenario in a COVID-19 modeling study, Jordan, March 2020–January 2021. Scenario A assumes the entire population, excepting essential services, will physically distance themselves for 24 hours every Friday while reverting to their usual behavior on the other days of the week. Scenario B assumes the population will physically distance themselves for the entire weekend (Friday and Saturday) while reverting to their usual behavior throughout the week. Scenario C assumes the entire population, except for essential services, will physically distance themselves for the entire week while never reverting to their usual behavior. Baseline scenario assumes no government intervention and half the population instinctively physically distancing themselves to avoid infection. Common to each scenario are 2 parameters used to define the extent of the physical distancing intervention: coverage, which refers to the percentage of the population following physical distancing regulations, and adherence, which refers to the extent to which individual persons follow those guidelines. On days when the interventions are not enforced, simulations assume 80% adherence and 50% coverage of the population practice physical distancing, while on days when the interventions are enforced it is assumed that 80% adherence and 90% coverage of the population physically distance themselves.

Figure 2. Model-predicted reported number of COVID-19 cases and cumulative number of associated deaths under scenarios A, B, C, and the baseline scenario in a COVID-19 modeling study, Jordan, March 2020–January 2021. Scenario A assumes the entire population, excepting essential services, will physically distance themselves for 24 hours every Friday while reverting to their usual behavior on the other days of the week. Scenario B assumes the population will physically distance themselves for the entire weekend (Friday and Saturday) while reverting to their usual behavior throughout the week. Scenario C assumes the entire population, except for essential services, will physically distance themselves for the entire week while never reverting to their usual behavior. Baseline scenario assumes no government intervention and half the population instinctively physically distancing themselves to avoid infection. Common to each scenario are 2 parameters used to define the extent of the physical distancing intervention: coverage, which refers to the percentage of the population following physical distancing regulations, and adherence, which refers to the extent to which individual persons follow those guidelines. On days when the interventions are not enforced, simulations assume 80% adherence and 50% coverage of the population practice physical distancing, while on days when the interventions are enforced it is assumed that 80% adherence and 90% coverage of the population physically distance themselves.

Main Article

1These first authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: July 06, 2023
Page updated: August 20, 2023
Page reviewed: August 20, 2023
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