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Volume 29, Number 9—September 2023
Synopsis

Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan

Saverio Bellizzi1Comments to Author , Nicholas Letchford1, Keyrellous Adib1, William J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, Lora Alsawalha, Alessio Santoro, Maria C. Profili, Ricardo Aguas, Christian Popescu, Lubna Al Ariqi, Lisa White, Wail Hayajneh, Nathir Obeidat, and Pierre Nabeth
Author affiliations: World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu); World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth); Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White); SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh); Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)

Main Article

Figure 4

Comparison of COVID-19 incidence (A) and cumulative deaths daily (B) under model scenario A compared with reported data in a COVID-19 modeling study, Jordan, March 2020–January 2021. Scenario A assumes the entire population, excepting essential services, will physically distance themselves for 24 hours every Friday while reverting to their usual behavior on the other days of the week. The scenario is defined by 2 key parameters: coverage and adherence. On days when the physical distancing intervention was enforced, the simulation assumes 60% of the population is following physical distancing regulations (coverage) and that those persons spend 80% of their time adhering to the intervention (adherence).

Figure 4. Comparison of COVID-19 incidence (A) and cumulative deaths daily (B) under model scenario A compared with reported data in a COVID-19 modeling study, Jordan, March 2020–January 2021. Scenario A assumes the entire population, excepting essential services, will physically distance themselves for 24 hours every Friday while reverting to their usual behavior on the other days of the week. The scenario is defined by 2 key parameters: coverage and adherence. On days when the physical distancing intervention was enforced, the simulation assumes 60% of the population is following physical distancing regulations (coverage) and that those persons spend 80% of their time adhering to the intervention (adherence).

Main Article

1These first authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: July 06, 2023
Page updated: August 20, 2023
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